Yours For Thine Mine

Or: Line(r) for a Line
(Source: axios.com)

The implications of TRUMP's strategic masterstroke have not taken long at all to fall into place, with supposed attacks on oil tankers by Iran utilizing mines and projectiles drawing like-for-like retaliation from the U.S. God of War, who has just busted up two IRGC tankers in return. This has had oil price jump by... two to four percent, which to be frank appears entirely in line with America's declared framework for energy dominance.

In probably related developments, the renewed throttling of critical energy shipments comes barely a day after Venezuela's replacement President announced a 25-year energy agreement with Imperial Amerika, soon followed by the White House upping the tenure to 100 years for the seventeen oil fields involved, for a firm partly owned by their Department of War. These numbers are by the way likely not random, from how the best-known 25-year agreement in geopolitics would be the Iran-China Team Red pact from 2021, of which a similar one might have been under negotiation with Maduro in January, before the previous President was briskly transported to America, where he currently resides as a honoured guest in New York. And as for the 100 years, what better way to commemorate President Xi's trademark phrase of "great changes unseen in a century"?

懂王布设得这么周到，怎说也该赏识一番吧？

The suggestive use of numbers should really not be lost on informed statespeople, many of whom are doubtless agonizing as to whether they 125 the latest tariffs; this may include the new Venezuelan President, who is maintaining that the benefits of this "biggest oil deal in world history" with TRUMP are endless, while explicitly insisting that Venezuela retains ultimate sovereignty over the resources. Well, as discussed in January, if you have to say these things, maybe they are in question. Legal scholars have meanwhile protested that the Constitution of Venezuela certainly does not permit century-long contracts, but as a careful reading of said Constitution reveals no provision for the kidnapping of their President(s), one figures that this ship has long sailed (assumed not across the Hormuz)

Since the magnitude of GEOTUS's energy coup does not seem to have been fully appreciated, a quick pop quiz may be in order: what country has the largest known oil reserves? Saudi Arabia would be an obvious response, with perhaps some Europeans pointing towards Norway, from the fabled North Sea oil that filled up the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world. Texans might not be entirely faulted for guessing the USA, while the other Gulf states may have their fans too.

The correct answer is, however, Venezuela:


May explain some of the current pressure on Canada too
[N.B. TRUMP had begun by negotiating the price down, as befits an expert.]
(Original source: visualcapitalist.com)

While it has become popular to downplay the significance of oil as an energy source of late, it remains entirely indispensable especially where the military is concerned (as explicitly raised for China by the Heritage Foundation), before going into the importance of various petroleum byproducts such as plastics and fertilizer. It is further hardly an exaggeration to state that the American hegemony of the Pax Americana had been maintained, if not built, via control over oil - originally established in the 1970s through the petrodollar mechanism, essentially backing the U.S. greenback with energy instead of gold. Major Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait played ball, while those that did not (e.g. Saddam Hussein in 2000 for Iraq, when he switched to the Euro) were summarily made an example of.

Now, considering the above, TRUMP sending a message with a video of Team Red Iran's Kharg Island oil hub getting blown up, and Team Red Russia's oil refineries actually being hit by drones from America's Ukrainian proxies, is the hypothesis of America attempting to exert geopolitical Control using a stranglehold on energy flows (as they have arguably been doing all this while), really that much of a stretch?